Models predicted Bush win in '04

Even before the current economic turmoil steered more voters towards Barack Obama, political scientists were predicting the Democratic candidate would win the presidency.

Election forecasts completed this year give Obama an 80 percent chance of victory. Just one of nine forecast models being published this month predicts John McCain will win, and that model relies heavily on poll results inflated by the substantial bounce that running mate Sarah Palin briefly provided the Republican ticket.