
Calling the situation "untenable" and describing Windows as "collapsing," a pair of Gartner analysts yesterday said Microsoft Corp. must make radical changes to its operating system or risk becoming a has-been.
In a presentation at a Gartner-sponsored conference in Las Vegas, analysts Michael Silver and Neil MacDonald said Microsoft has not responded to the market, is overburdened by nearly two decades of legacy code and decisions, and faces serious competition on a whole host of fronts that will make Windows moot unless the software developer acts.
I have to say that after the latest Vista SP1 install, I agree in spirit at least.
- J
If someone were to make linux more accessible to the average computer user I suspect Microsoft with be ruined.
I've been a Linux user for over a decade. It's easy and second nature to me. I have to admit Linux has way too many "gothas" for the would be novice. I am amazed with how easily novices get tangled-up with esoteric technical details.
That said. I've come to realize all computer platforms have a learning curve. The first PC I owned was a Mac. Since my first exposure to Windows 3.00. every time I've encountered a new platform I've stumbled upon "gothas" that even stump me. I've just come to as just the coin of the realm.
I hope one day you give Linux a try and experience the tremendous joy of Open Source computing without arbitrary limitations.
I like Linux but find its upgrade system to have a lot of faults, particularly for the novice user.
A kernel upgrade breaks numerous processes. After you have your bluetooth mouse working, your wireless network working, your ATI display working, etc., you upgrade and suddenly bluetooth doesn't work, you can't connect to the network and your display either fails totally or drops you into a horrible default display mode.
Recompiling various processes can usually restore functionality, but this should not be necessary.
If someone were to make linux more accessible to the average computer user I suspect Microsoft with be ruined.
Unless that someone becomes Microsoft. Microsoft could slash development costs of its OS by making it open-source.
It may sound strange, but it could work. The reason why uptake of open-source software is slow is due to the lack of support. If Microsoft had an open-source system, plus the support services, then it would maintain its market position.
Rather than using the OS as a cash cow, it could focus on what it is best at, providing business applications. The lack of licensing for client OS machines would free up funds for more complex software architectures and redundant systems.
There is no reason why Microsoft would lose market share, or their profit margins. If anything, it would accelerate the uptake of Windows and thus serve to drive the need for business applications.
Its just a new twist to what they've been trying to achieve for decades...Microsoft on every machine.
That's what I mean, say what you will about windows I can usually just hook up something new to the box and windows picks it right up. XP that is, I'm holding off on Vista as long as possible. The list of obsolete technologies that I've had to master and then discard is getting depressingly long. I tend to make each one last as long as possible.
I don't think Microsoft could survive if they made Windows OSS. Sure, they'd be around. But they make far more money with a closed-source Windows than Canonical does selling support. Far more.
Besides, the people who care about OSS won't switch to Windows anyway.
MS makes more money from Office than it does from Windows licensing. A change in the openness of their windows source code wouldn't break them.
It wouldn't break them, but they'd lose money. Why would a company want to lose money? They wouldn't gain anything from going to OSS, except that some FOSS developers would be happy. And even if they moved to OSS, they wouldn't use a standard license and the Stallman disciples would be unhappy. I mean, right now they dominate the Office area. OpenOffice.org is basically only used by cheapies like me. The lawyers have finally realized that WordPerfect isn't worth keeping around any more. iWork could be a competitor, but it's OS X-only and not likely to change any time soon.
@ Wheel
You should check our Ubuntu linux, very small learning curve.
Especially after 8.04 comes out on Thursday. Then, you can just install it and uninstall it like any other Windows program (it's still a separate OS though).
sounds interesting, is it free?
Not only is it free as in money, it is free to let you do whatever you want with it.
sounds interesting, is it free?
Yes it is, and I highly recommend it for anyone worried about the complexities of keeping up with Linux installations.
It has a really painless install procedure, and I almost never have issues with Ubuntu. It's the most user-friendly version of Linux I've seen so far.
Actually, the one that is REALLY painless is Linux Mint since it preinstalls all the codecs and drivers. But it doesn't have Wubi support yet, so I can't recommend it as the easiest for new guys.
cool, I'm clipping this thread to my clippings.
I'm holding off on Vista as long as possible.
Same here. A couple of months ago, my sister's hard drive crashed (she has a Dell laptop). She didn't want to get a new computer because all the new computers have Vista on them. So she got a new hard drive instead.
The list of obsolete technologies that I've had to master and then discard is getting depressingly long.
True dat!
It wouldn't break them, but they'd lose money. Why would a company want to lose money?
Well, they might find that it would save them money and produce a more stable product, in the long run. I don't think they'll do it, but they could re-task and/or lay off a number of Windows developers if the product became community-supported.
Also, making it open source does not necessarily mean it needs to be free. MS could open up the source code of the OS, but still charge for the product a la Apple. Darwin is open, but OSX ain't free!
t wouldn't break them, but they'd lose money. Why would a company want to lose money? They wouldn't gain anything from going to OSS, except that some FOSS developers would be happy.
In the long run, they would be losing money due to people switching platforms anyway. This would have the knock-on effect of changing business applications people are prepared to use.
At least this way, they can let the community focus on refining Windows, rather than pumping cash in to create a new ground-breaking system every few years. People would be much happier patching their existing systems. For the 'official' release, Microsoft can select the code it is happiest with and bundle that to the customer.
It also means that they would retain their market spaces in terms of server editions and back-end systems such as MOSS, SQL and Exchange, etc.
They will, of course, milk the product to the end, but, when the tide is turning, I would expect the client version of Windows to be release as open-source and free. This will provide very deep-market penetration and keep Microsoft in a dominant position for at least the two to three decades. Then they will probably repeat the model with some of their backend stuff and obtain their cashflow from elsewhere.
I'm not expecting MS to go anywhere soon, but they will lose significant market share if they don't adapt.
Linux needs greater access by being a default OS on new PCs.
Most computer users go with what is the easiest and are not tech savvy enough for OS installs, drive partitioning and dual boot options.
Throw in the need for correct drivers (print, device) etc. and the average user is lost.
Will Rogers said it best: "The average citizen is an idiot".
I think Ubuntu Hardy's fixing that with Wubi.
RE: Linux
I think that the problem, is that users expect their computers to behave like a toaster.. pop in the bread.. press the lever and bingo.. the problem is.. computers just are not toasters. They ALL require some learning curve, and sadly many are just to lazy/ stupid or both to actually learn how to use them. For crying out loud.. my in-laws computer has icons covering every single square centimeter of space, because they don't know that they can delete windows install files. They were going to get rid of their high speed internet and go back to AOHell because they didin't know how to set their home page in their browser. Sadly this situation is more often the norm than the exception. I find that nearly every windows user I know is running their machine totally unpatched. They are unaware that they need to update antivirus definition files.. it just goes on and on. The contrast is that your usual Linux user just isn't that lazy.. or maybe they are.. They like software that installs with a click. They like a system that tells them when there are software stability or security upgrades. They like tha fact that using a HP printer does not even necessitate them using the driver install disk. They like tha fact that for the most part anti-virus, anti-adware software is not even required. Sadly, windows users expect their systems to work this way, and the reality is,, they just don't. One has to spend a lot of time keeping watch over their windows system. The enterprise has a real problem, because many of their"killer apps" just won't run on newer windows OS.. and while Apple made the decision to (pretty much) drop legacy code, MS has refused to do so, so as to not totally alienate their huge enterprise base. Yep, Windows is a mess.. and I don't care.
Yes, I am a (ubuntu) Gnu/Linux fanboi, and I approve of this message
And it's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."
Hee, hee, hee, I understand but I'm no uppity Linux user. Window users pay me good money to assist them with their systems. I often donate my fix-it services to families with school age children. I've been around since the BBS days, and I'm happy to see how the online community has grown. Whether we like it or not Windows users dominate the web.
I am neutral about what platform people use to connect to the net. However, you make some excellent points about windows users not paying attention to updates and security. It worries me. I know of at least four windows user that got caught by the < iframe> virus.
I'm a SuSE Linux and Ubuntu user. I used to be a Debian user. However, Ubuntu still gives me gothas because I'm still getting accustomed to choices Ubuntu developers make. I have to constantly remind myself when I experience problems that it's part of the learning curve. Take a deep breath and resolve the problem.
I would like more folks to use Linux, but I understand why they don't. I strongly believe if Microsoft keeps screwing up people are going to be driven to use Linux.
I think that the problem, is that users expect their computers to behave like a toaster.. pop in the bread.. press the lever and bingo.. the problem is.. computers just are not toasters.
At the risk of sounding insulting (not my intention), that attitude is something I would expect to hear back in the day of BBSes, command line interfaces, and cradle modems. Computers and our reliance on them has reached a point where they need to be like toasters. When the makers of the operating systems come to that realization (Mac OS 7 was a good move in that direction), they become less a confusing morass of technopuke and more a tool for getting things done.
The same thing can be said for any technology that turns the corner from being a novelty or something that is used by a restrictive class of the population into something that is an ubiquitous part of our lives. I'd cite the automobile as an example. When they first became available, folks would have to be trained on them by a factory technician. Doing things as simple as starting the engine was a multi-step process that took several minutes. Flash forward, and all you do is turn the key... voila! Most people don't even understand the concept of how an internal combustion engine works.
Like cars, computers should be expected to simply do what we want and need them to do. Also like cars, there is a certain geek class that will tweak them, soup up the engine, make them perform better, etc. You seem to be speaking from that perspective, which isn't necessarily incorrect but is a bit elitist in nature.
-J
Josh:
I have to say, that I see your point, but I disagree. People have been using televisions much longer than pc's and still, try hooking up a media center, or even speakers to your t.v.. t.v.s do not work like toasters. Lets use the Automobile in this comparo..can you get into a car push one button(the toaster lever) and get to work? No. you still have to actively drive the vehicle.. you have to park, and you have to brake, and steer.. I know.. Lexus says their car parks itself.. I saw a demo.. and it took 6 times to still get it wrong.
As far as my elitist nature.. well.. yeah maybe I am.. I expect people to do silly little things like read owners manuals.. maybe google something for an answer, and yeah maybe think about something before they throw up their arms and say "my internet is broken". I mean.. frankly its like you are saying that it is elitist to expect people to wipe their own backsides, and maybe we need a loo that does it for us. And don't get me wrong.. for a long time.. knowing the cli was a linux necessity.. but that just is not the case any longer.. nor is souping up ones install. I have never installed.. or should I say compiled my own kernel.. I use the command line for three things.. irc, and tracing people portsniffing my box, or phishing. My little daughter who is constantly saying things like bff, or No WAAAAAAAAY has used my linux box for 4 years.. and she never uses the cli.. trust me. My 6 yr old uses it to access his webkinz account.. and to this day he has never asked me to show him emacs or vim... That perspective .. as you put it belongs to people from the yankee group, or a MS ad campaign.. the reality is KDE, and Gnome( among others) pretty much make the cli a novelty.
Does the OS really matter anymore? If you wanted to, you could easily move a majority of typical user behavior to cross-platform, cross-browser web-based applications. Specialty applications like gaming, animation, etc may not be online yet, and for those people, OS may matter today - but we are approaching a point where every OS - not just windows - should be a non-issue.
I personally run a MacBook with VMWare fusion for an XP VM, a BSD VM, and a separate Vista desktop. My Vista machine is patched, but I don't run a tremendous amount of software-based security systems (firewalls, anti-virus) ... my security solution has always been to invest in high-quality hardware firewalls. I run a series of full scans on the Vista machine the other day and found 0 viruses, 0 indication of any sort of intrusion, etc. My Vista box is secure, but perhaps only because I don't rely upon Microsoft for my security.
"Does the OS really matter anymore?"
And you run a Macbook? sure the OS matters. But the point is very valid, for most its the applications.
Anything as unreliable, cumbersome, and lock-stepped as MSFT's OS if in an automobile would be recalled and scrapped.
Anything as unreliable, cumbersome, and lock-stepped as MSFT's OS if in an automobile would be recalled and scrapped.
Heh... you've obviously never played with a 1980s-era Jaguar ;-)
- J
Hey those jags aren't that bad. You just have to rip out the wiring, the steering, and the drivetrain and replace them. Then you have a solid car. :)
My Jags always came equipped with a tow truck as O.E.M. equipment, don't they still??
I think they stopped that, they did do a trial pair of jags thing(one as a spare) but that ended up being cost prohibitive.
Yes, I am one of those who would love to have a computer that works like a toaster. Personally I think that is the basic allure of all these new gewgaws like iPhone, PDAs and the slew of new gadgets that have some computer capabilities. They are more user-friendly, somewhat less expensive, portable, and fun to use.
Frankly a lot of PC/laptops and OS's are more like Ferraris -- you have to keep taking them in to the shop. Not fun.
What we need are more computers that are like the old beloved VW Beetle that ran even when mechanically speaking, they should not have started up when you put the key in. Or like a toaster.
Sorry to sound so un-geeky.
The two Gartner analysts may be correct, but I've been reading these same claims for years.
Agreed, vista is being sold on the majority of new PCs now, and most users I've met don't have any problems using it at all. It will be at least another 5 years before you can even start talking about windows becoming obsolete...
Most vista bashing is really bull@!$%# written by linux or mac fanboys.
/longtime windows+linux user and new macbook owner
Most vista bashing is really bull@!$%# written by linux or mac fanboys.
I've never used Linux, and I don't own a Mac. But I have had the unfortunate experience of using Vista. All MS did was take a sub-standard OS, make it spiffy and shiny, and put it on the shelves.
It's the same thing with Office 07 (though it's not really substandard). Why did they have to get rid of simple menus like Edit, File, etc? The only reason they put that stupid Windows logo in the top corner is because they thought it looked cool. And, since they got rid of the menus, they had to completely generalise the categories: Review, Edit, Layout, etc. I was using Office 07 two days ago; I needed to undo something I did, but there was no Undo in the Edit "menu". Undo! The simplest operation ever! BUT, MS felt the need to put in coding for language translation. I guess Undo took up the space needed for that.
It's the same thing with Office 07 (though it's not really substandard). Why did they have to get rid of simple menus like Edit, File, etc? The only reason they put that stupid Windows logo in the top corner is because they thought it looked cool. And, since they got rid of the menus, they had to completely generalise the categories: Review, Edit, Layout, etc. I was using Office 07 two days ago; I needed to undo something I did, but there was no Undo in the Edit "menu". Undo! The simplest operation ever! BUT, MS felt the need to put in coding for language translation. I guess Undo took up the space needed for that.
Ayup, I like to call it "bells and whistles for the skae of bells and whistles." I took one look at Office and downloaded OpenOffice, which I now use as my primary writing and spreadsheet applications.
-J
At work we've got Office 07 installed on one machine so that we can figure out what it will break. I've played around with it and I like the new interface. I might change my mind a bit once I actually have to use it, but so far I like it.
I needed to undo something I did, but there was no Undo in the Edit "menu".
To undo something, hold the CTRL key and press z. Works in any application that allows you to undo.
The ribbon interface is going to take some time for people to get used to, but it is superior to the previous Office interface in terms of making various features visible to the user. Features that users previously had to click 5-10 times, digging through dialog boxes and tabs, are now more readily accessible. You just need to get used to it (I am not yet fully used to it).
Also, undo is VERY readily accessible via controls as well as keyboard shortcuts as Perry noted above. In the top left corner, next to the circular "Office" button, you should see two curved arrows. Allow your mouse to hover over the arrows and you'll see which is undo and which is redo. This interface change also makes it easier for users to access features that they may use often ... as long as the user knows where it is.
I do think it will take some time, but I anticipate these changes improving my productivity.
clearcache, I agree.
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